By Jude Atupulazi
The trending topic now is the talk of a powerful coalition being formed against the ruling behemoth called the All Progressives Congress, APC, by some leading members of the opposition. Those behind the coalition are no other than the former Presidential Candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; the former Presidential Candidate of Labour Party, LP, Mr Peter Obi; and former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, who seems to be acting more as a connector between Atiku and Obi, as well as other big weights.
The coming together of these men shows once again how nothing is static in politics. Flash back to Obi’s tenure as Governor of Anambra State. It was an election morning to determine whether Obi would successfully hand over to Willie Obiano or not. INEC had decreed that there would be no movement except within polling areas. But El-Rufai had arrived in the state from far away Kaduna even when he had no role to play. But it was thought he came to ensure the victory of his party. He was lodging at Finotel, a swank hotel in Awka.
Obi knew about El-Rufai’s presence which he saw as ominous. What did Obi do? He ordered that El-Rufai must not be allowed to leave the hotel for any reason. For Obi, if he, as a sitting Governor, was not allowed to move about, there was no way another Governor could leave his state and come to Anambra and be moving about. When El-Rufai found he had been barred from coming out of the hotel, he raved and ranted before the cameras of Channels Television which interviewed him.
He threatened fire and thunder against Obi but at the end of the day, he remained in his hotel room, a rather subdued man. Personally, I thought both men would never see eye to eye again. But today, it has been El-Rufai wooing Obi to be part of a coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu. See what politics can do?
As for Atiku Abubakar, he was the one who ensured that Obi failed to get the ticket of the PDP the last time out because he wanted to run as the candidate, even when it was clearly the turn of the Southeast to produce the President. Obi was forced to leave and join the Labour Party from where he shocked everybody by his popularity. Before then, he had been running mate to Atiku.
It is still believed that had PDP given Obi its ticket and rallied round him, Nigeria may have had a different President today, as the combined might of LP and PDP (with a stronger structure) could have been too strong for APC to deal with. Today, both PDP and LP are in disarray – no thanks to the systematic weakening of the parties by the APC controlled Federal Government.
It is therefore becoming very clearer by the day that removing Tinubu from Aso Rock isn’t what any one party can achieve, hence, the coalition moves. Yet, it is not just about forming a coalition. It is about including people whom Nigerians can trust, faces that promise hope and something new.
In Nigeria today, only one politician represents the afore-stated virtues and that man is Peter Obi. Somehow, Obi has succeeded in becoming the poster boy of Nigeria’s politics; he’s about the only politician without baggage, the only one whom the ruling party and other political enemies have tried everything in the book to nail but failed. He’s both an enigma and a hero; a hero of the masses.
Hitherto thought to be wasting his time when he signalled interest to run for the Presidency the last time, Obi quickly proved how serious he was by forming the biggest mass movement in Nigeria’s political history via his Obidient Movement. It had such an organic growth that at some point it grew out of his control.
Rather than control it, it began to own and control him, such that even if he had wanted to pull out of the race he would not have been able to do so. He eventually won that election (it was never in doubt, except one wants to delude oneself) but it was snatched from him by the powers that be.
His failure to secure his mandate has largely been attributed to his going it virtually alone. He had no structure. His structure was the masses but it proved incapable of securing his votes. Fast forward to today and he is warming up for another shot at the Presidency. Some will tell you that it will be better he goes it alone again, while others argue that the only way he can smell Aso Rock is to align with others as a running mate. What then should Obi do?
I want to align with the second school of thought which says he cannot achieve his ambition alone. Yes, the reality on the ground which faces every Igbo man in Nigeria is that no Igbo man can win the Presidency on his own. He must work with people from other divides to get a foot inside Aso Rock after which anything can happen. We saw this happen with former President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan.
He never dreamed of becoming President and certainly no one saw that happening. He was picked as running mate to the late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. But suddenly, Yar’Adua died in office and as the constitution provided and still provides, Jonathan, as his Deputy, became the President and completed Ya’Adua’s first tenure.
He then went for his and won the first term before the powers that be woke from their slumber and tossed him out in his second tenure bid. Jonathan would never have been President if he hadn’t been inside the corridors of power as the Vice President.
Now, feelers from the coalition indicate that Obi may once again be Atiku’s running mate. Some people don’t want to hear this. They see it as a sell out by Obi, a betrayal of trust. They insist that he must go it alone or quit. But I laugh at this stance.
Given the realities of Nigeria today, even if Obi contests and wins ten times, he will be robbed blind as long as he goes it alone. That is the sad reality. Common sense therefore, dictates that he finds a way of getting in on the ground floor first before negotiating the stair case to the main floor.
Another reality is that only the North can effectively challenge Tinubu. No other region can stand a chance of doing so. Now, the entire North is uniting against Tinubu who is doing to them what Muhammadu Buhari did to the rest of us in his time as President. While the rest of the country don’t really care, the North which cannot do without being in power for long is alarmed, worried and angry with Tinubu.
But then, they also realize that they need someone who will win them the sympathy and support of the rest of Nigeria, and no one can do that successfully at the moment than Peter Obi. He is the only one that can make the rest of Nigeria look at them with any form of interest.
But again, it also depends on who will be the arrow point. Of all the leading politicians from the North with capacity to win election, Atiku is the obvious choice. He is not a fanatical Muslim and he is not as clannish as Buhari. He may have his baggage but it is watered down by his broad mindedness. Besides, it is known that should he be President, the person that will be doing most of the work will be Obi and we know that with Obi inside Aso Rock, things will never be as bad as they are at the moment.
This scenario is like a comparison between a thief who wants to live in the same building with a priest and another thief who prefers to live with a fellow thief. The first thief is likely not to be as bad as the other one who prefers living with a fellow thief because it takes two to tango, as they say.
What am I saying? With Obi with a foot inside Aso Rock, Nigerians can expect some hope; something different, because the politicians who brought him in, knew what to expect. With Atiku’s broader disposition, chances are that his government will benefit from Obi’s advice and input.
It will certainly be a better option than the deal Nigerians are getting now. For example, if Obi had been Vice President under Buhari, there was no way the Southeast would have been excluded from the National Rail Project, while the sleepy town of Katsina (Buhari’s town) benefited. This is what having a foot inside the power corridors can do.
But despite all this, it still remains a very tough task to dethrone Tinubu who is a games master. Yet, if any region can dethrone him, it is the North and with them, there is a modicum of chance.
So far, the coalition being championed by Atiku Abubakar, has announced leaders from the 6 Geopolitical Zones, viz:
- Atiku Abubakar (North East)
- David Mark (North Central)
- Nasir El-Rufai (North West)
- Rotimi Amaechi (South South)
- Mr Peter Obi (South East)
- Mr Rauf Aregbesola (South West)
All eyes are on the coalition to see how everything pans out, but as Nigerians watch, the fact remains that Obi’s only true chance in making it to Aso Rock is through such an arrangement as this.
