By Jude Atupulazi
There’s a saying among our people that the death that kills a dog does not allow it to perceive the smell of faeces. This saying finds expression in the rumoured decision by former Nigeria’s President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, a rather quiet, good man, though with a touch of naivety, to run for President again. He was President for six years.
He first started as the Vice to the late President Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, who died and Jonathan replaced him to complete the first term of their ticket. He then contested and won to preside over as President in what was supposed to be his first full term. He however failed in his bid to go for second term as he made history in these parts as the first incumbent President to lose an election he conducted.
Many believed and still believe that he chickened out rather than stay and fight after he was intimidated by the opposition. Nevertheless, he was hailed for allowing democracy to thrive. But one truth known to all is that he was a victim of a cabal in the corridors of power who wanted him out.
While he was going for his first full term, the Southeast massively supported him and gave him plenty votes, thanks to the efforts of former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, who pulled out all the stops, as Chairman of Southeast Governors’ Forum, to ensure that Ndi Igbo backed Jonathan. Obi also enjoyed a very good relationship with Jonathan, leading to Obi’s appointment as a member of the President’s Economic Team.
Jonathan was perceived to have taken the slot meant for the Southeast but it could also be argued that his South South Region had not tasted power, just as the Southeast then.
Then after Jonathan came the late President Muhammadu Buhari who was from the North. He did two terms of eight years despite the people of the Southeast arguing that it should be their turn. But the counter argument was that Jonathan was from the South. This argument was based on the notion that Nigeria was divided politically into North and South and nothing more.
But after Buhari, it was as clear as daylight that since power was going South, it should naturally go the region in that South that had NEVER tasted power and that region was the Southeast. That should have been fair, just and non-negotiable. But the West claimed they were from the South and contrived to snatch power from the Southeast whose man, Peter Obi, won the election.
It was a big electoral heist that left many Nigerians mad, sorrowful, dispirited and losing faith in the country’s electoral process. Obi had enjoyed a popularity never seen in the annals of the country’s political history, and, given the failure of the previous regime of Buhari, it was clear where the victory pendulum would swing. But as I stated, Nigerians (that was what Obi stood for) won but were denied their victory.
Today, activities for the 2027 Presidential Election are gearing up and the incumbent regime of Bola Ahmed Tinubu has yet been unable to lift Nigerians out of poverty. There is hardship in the land and all but those in the corridors of power and their cronies are groaning.
Again, Obi from the Southeast is poised to contest again and has sworn to do only one term to complete the full tenure of the so-called South. His popularity has remained high, if not higher. The cabal, seeing that there is no way the North can come in and truncate the remaining four years of the South, are said to be wooing Jonathan to come out and run again for the Presidency.
Many are seeing this as a betrayal if Jonathan eventually succumbs to the wooing. Remember that I described Jonathan as politically naïve, a development that may see him falling to the temptation, just as they see it as a betrayal as it would mean paying back the Southeast for their support to him before by being used to deny them a shot at the Presidency.
Thus, the question now is whether Jonathan will fall into temptation or stand firm and back the Southeast which backed him before. As we wait with bated breath, I came upon a piece on this by a diplomat of repute, Mr Oseloka Henry Obaze, and decided to share his thoughts with you. Read on.
GEJ, Please, Don’t Go There
Oseloka H. Obaze
Good day, President Jonathan. In the local parlance of Otu Eke and Otu Nkwo, I come in peace. Sir, may I ask a question you need to ponder deeply before you respond? Did you forget anything at the Aso Rock Villa? Regardless of the answer, Sir, here is the generalized message. Please, do not under any circumstance be lured or swayed by any individual, group or political party, into seriously considering running again for the Nigerian presidency, especially in 2027. GEJ, please, don’t go there.
Those who contrive such machinations merely wish to deal you a bad and devilish political hand. Your running will not serve your purpose; and it will not add fillip to nation-building. It will merely worsen the prevailing leadership hubris, political disequilibrium, distrust and national miasma.
Hence, you must reject the poisoned chalice being dangled before you. The purveyors are the same political cabals that betrayed you, destroyed your erstwhile presidency and hounded you out of the same presidential office that they are now egging you on to attempt to reoccupy. What changed? Nothing! Please, don’t even think of it. If you do, you may face a stormy backlash. History will forever be unkind to you. That’s the truth; and I will offer other cogent reasons.
First, the constitutional validity of your making another (technically third) run at the Nigerian presidency after having been sworn in twice is fraught with controversy and imponderables. In my simple, but not-so-legal mind, you are no longer eligible to contest. If you run and win, the same cabal will use the courts to abort your victory, and take over the presidency. Please don’t humour them!
Second, those pushing you to run were the same people who tried to block you from legally succeeding indisposed President Umaru Yar’Adua, thus compelling the invocation of the Doctrine of Necessity. They only want to use your running in 2027 to forestall Peter Obi and the Southeast from having a shot at the Nigerian presidency. They serve primordial interests and are neither reformed nor converted.
Third, to those pushing for your presidential run, your candidacy merely represents a default fourth strategic option. First, they are disgusted with the Tinubu-Shettima Muslim-Muslim ticket, which they foisted on secular Nigeria. Second, they don’t want Peter Obi and his one term declamation out of fear that it might turn into a full eight-year term.
And third, they know that no Northerner can win the presidency in 2027, given that it is the second segment of a Southern eight-year mandate. Ostensibly, you are their fourth choice and expedient tool; not necessarily a credible alternative. They believe that constitutionally, you are, ab initio, limited to one term. That’s what makes you attractive to them.
Fourth, in April 2011, the Southeast Zone delivered the largest chunk of 22.4 million votes that guaranteed your winning that presidential election. The southeast zone delivered 97.2% of their cumulative votes to you. Mr. President if you run and foreclose on a Southeast candidate, you won’t get those Southeast votes, and your candidacy will surely smack of ingratitude. Nigerians don’t know you as an ungrateful person. Don’t alter that attribute and humility. Keep your credibility intact.
Fifth, the incumbent administration has notoriously weaponized the use of governmental institutions to harass the political opposition or “forgive the sins” of those malleable few, who are willing to join them. Don’t bet that they will not come after you if you ever decide to challenge the status quo.
Sixth, it’s only the cabal’s groupthink that makes it utterly seductive to suggest that your candidacy represents the most formidable rallying impetus for the national alliance required to unseat President Bola Tinubu and the APC. Yet, your candidacy will be the proverbial double-edged Brutusque sword that cuts both ways, and very deep too.
Finally, Sir, your credentials as an elder statesman have grown exponentially both at home and abroad since you left office on 29th May 2015. Don’t alter that trajectory for no just cause. Your decision not to run will do more for nation-building than the decision to run. Nonetheless, the decision is yours. But history will ultimately, be the judge. If my analysis seems presumptuous, please pardon me. As a student of politics and a patriot, I’ve only elected to speak truth to power.
Obaze is MD/CEO, Selonnes Consult – a policy, governance and management consulting firm in Awka.
